
A fascinating story is unfolding right now ))
First of all, the most enjoyable part of it is that nobody can look into the future when it comes to major news events.
We're seeing this once again. THE FUTURE DOES NOT EXIST ))
And that's actually good news, because it also means that the future is shaped by the most probable possibilities.
That's exactly what I want to talk about below.
To the left of the bearish candle, we can see the calculations made by people and AI, where the price was moving step by step closer to a previously identified level. In other words, the AI identified that level some time ago, and it was RIGHT. The price really did move toward the indicated level, with one LONG after another pushing the pair in that direction.
And then came the news (!) β the CPI report β followed by a bearish collapse...
Hmm, how did that happen? Did everyone go crazy? Did we all miss some AMAZING NEWS? ))
Personally, I see nervousness among the BULLS as the main reason behind this collapse.
First of all, the report itself doesn't look positive enough to justify such a powerful, almost instantaneous move.
The price action BEFORE the collapse was confident and bullish, which tells us the same thing: the price was rising because people were buying LONGS (or closing SHORTS).
At the same time, I believe the bulls' nervousness was probably substantial β perhaps extreme, given the broader instability and the general market backdrop.
And then came the news, which certainly triggered something. But what exactly?
In my view, it triggered mass LONG closures β meaning EURUSD selling.
And here's what I think. If we want to test our WORDS and JUDGMENTS (as well as the AI's calculations), we need to check them against reality.
So, if this explanation is largely correct, then the price should RETURN to the level identified by the AI β and, by the way, relatively quickly.
Probably within days, certainly not weeks.
SO, LET'S TEST IT! π
People don't think clearly when they're panicking.
But the shock has passed β or is passing β and now we can expect calmer, more rational reasoning to return, along with a recovery of the bullish trend. And, incidentally, at MORE ATTRACTIVE PRICE LEVELS.
Of course, the energy-resource problems and everything else haven't disappeared.
But they were already part of the equation BEFORE the collapse, contributing to the overall nervousness.
My view is that panic and fear often rule the world right now β as they have throughout history, and sometimes especially strongly ))
But sooner or later, common sense usually returns. And that's what I see in the scenario I've outlined above: A RECOVERY OF THE BULLISH TREND.
So let's keep testing this as the story unfolds.
Because when everything is built step by step on verifiable results, reliable data, and clear statistics, I find it much easier to trust the process going forward.
Let's watch and see ))