Crano It’s also important to understand that Mr. Trump needs a weaker dollar.
I rarely resort to this kind of analysis, but when it comes to a major trend reversal, there are numerous underlying factors pointing in that direction.
The main factor is Trump. One of his key objectives is a weaker dollar — and, along with it, more affordable high-quality goods and services. This is one of the key ingredients for revitalizing the American economy.
These are fundamental considerations, and they are accompanied by the actions of his administration and advisers.
The current energy crisis delivers a double blow to that objective.
First, rising domestic prices slow economic development.
Second, when global markets face energy shortages, the European economy — as a major consumer of energy resources — becomes less attractive. And this, in turn, puts upward pressure on the US dollar, at least when viewed through the lens of the relationships we’re examining here.
There’s also a third factor, a fourth, and so on. Taken together, many of these considerations point toward a weakening dollar, which remains a key objective.
There is, however, one major complication: the decisions made by Trump himself. At least in the short term, they can have contradictory consequences. But over the longer term, I believe they may well deliver the intended result.
Bringing Iran under control and eliminating what is perceived as an existential threat could have an extremely positive impact on the global economy as a whole. And by the time that happens, Trump needs the dollar to be weaker.
Otherwise, many of the benefits could end up going to the Eurozone and China, which could maintain excellent relations with a different Iran.
So it is reasonable to assume that there will be continued efforts to weaken the dollar using every available instrument, backed by the highest levels of interest in achieving that outcome.
And yes, I’m talking about the long-term perspective. But it is precisely this perspective that provides the underlying backdrop, and local events are unlikely to fundamentally change that deeper logic.
Let’s take the situation right now, for example.
The short-term reality is currently working against this logic.
High oil and diesel prices in 2026 are supporting the dollar rather than weakening it.
A classic paradox: Trump wants a weaker dollar and cheaper fuel at the same time, but the current energy shock is producing the opposite effect on the currency.
However, the question is not simply what is happening right now.
The question is why these major events have unfolded in the first place, and what larger objective they may ultimately serve
