Interesting (Unusual) People on ForexFactory

Bob

Interesting (Unusual) People on ForexFactory

Right now, in the commercial section of the forum, there is an extremely active person.

He creates indicators for free, modifies old ones, and so on.

So far, everything is pretty predictable. Modern AI, if you’re at least a little bit of a programmer and have built up some basic knowledge, can create pretty much anything you want.

You can even tell from the replies themselves that they are AI-generated, including the “instructions” and all those READ_ME_FIRST things ))

What’s interesting.

I’m not even going to get into why he does it, why he needs it, and so on. What I’m really curious about is how long he will keep doing it, because doing all this for FREE, just for the sake of it, means being in the negative yourself, unless there is some hidden motive (which, by the way, people seem to have already found in other threads on the forum).

But that’s not important either.

What is important is something else.

Here is a screenshot of his latest work from his AI.

It looks like a REAL AIRCRAFT CONTROL PANEL! Or a ROCKET CONTROL PANEL, no less ))

Bright charts. DOWN — in red. UP — in green.

Numbers, numbers, numbers...

And for me, as an engineer, and as someone who, back in the day, passed Higher Mathematics early as well, it is always interesting to understand one thing when I look at THESE CONTROL PANELS FOR SPACESHIPS...

What is the ACTUAL ACCURACY here?

For example, 1,000 trades, this many different pairs, at different times — and HERE IS THE PROVEN RESULT.

You see, OVERLOADING THE BRAIN with something BEAUTIFUL is not difficult.

What matters is something else — THE NATURE OF THE NUMBERS.

Multiplying red by hot may sound philosophically impressive, but in practice it is COMPLETE BULLSHIT.

UNTIL, until it is PROVEN that some of these NUMBERS actually UNDERSTAND, in some way, the part of REALITY that they were SUPPOSED to measure and extrapolate — meaning, to predict the future.

That is my opinion.

THESE CONTROL PANELS FOR CONTROLLING THE UNIVERSE...

They may simply STEAL YOUR TIME.

That’s all.

Crano

Bob I think this is a very fair point.

A complicated dashboard can make something LOOK extremely sophisticated, but sophistication of presentation is not the same thing as predictive power.

Personally, I would rather see 5 simple numbers with 2,000 independent observations behind them than 50 colorful indicators that nobody can clearly connect to future reality ))

In the end, the question is quite simple: did the numbers actually tell us something useful about what happened next?

If yes, then great.

If not, all those beautiful control panels are just very expensive-looking wallpaper for the brain ))

Bob

Crano ### Question

What is the scientifically studied and proven accuracy of Technical Analysis (TA) in financial markets?

Answer

There is no scientifically established universal accuracy rate for Technical Analysis.

Research does show that some technical trading rules have produced statistically significant and sometimes profitable results, particularly in FX markets. However, results vary enormously by market, period and specific rule.

A major review of 95 modern studies found:

56 studies reported positive results
20 studies reported negative results
19 studies reported mixed results

But the same review warned that many studies suffered from data snooping, ex-post selection of trading rules, and problems with transaction costs and risk estimation.

A large FX study tested 113,148 technical trading rules across 22 currencies. Some rules produced very strong historical returns, but after controlling for data-snooping bias, the number of robust results fell sharply. Traditional moving-average rules were essentially no longer significant in the 2006–2015 period, while some newer indicator-based rules remained profitable.

Another study tested 25,988 technical trading strategies in emerging FX markets. Hundreds or thousands initially appeared statistically profitable, but almost all became insignificant after controlling for data snooping.

Bottom line

TA does not have a proven accuracy of 60%, 70%, 80%, or any other universal percentage.

What has been demonstrated is much weaker and much more specific:

Some particular technical rules can contain predictive information under particular market conditions and periods.

But there is no scientific evidence establishing that Technical Analysis as a whole has a reliable universal prediction accuracy.

So when someone presents a sophisticated TA dashboard with dozens of indicators and numbers, the important question is not:

“How impressive does this look?”

The important question is:

“Which numbers have demonstrated a statistically robust relationship with future market behavior — and does that relationship survive out-of-sample testing and data-snooping controls?”

That is the real test.

Bob

Bob TA does not have a proven accuracy of 60%, 70%, 80%, or any other universal percentage.

Bob no scientific evidence establishing that Technical Analysis as a whole has a reliable universal prediction accuracy.

And what I wrote above is NOT MY PEDANTRY.

Yes, people who like scientific methods and mathematics in general may SEEM LIKE NERDS, but that’s not really the case!

They — and I hope I belong to this group — simply know one thing:

NO PROVING RESEARCH?

Then THIS PILL may actually be dangerous, and at BEST it is harmless.

But whether it is USEFUL — you’ll find that out later, if you survive or simply don’t feel anything )))

So, no research — no point wasting your time.

I mean, of course TA helps a little, somehow and in some ways.

BUT what I’m trying to say is:

A SPACECRAFT CONTROL PANEL FOR SOMETHING THAT WORKS RATHER WEAKLY...

Well, that’s not exactly an impressive spaceship.

I definitely wouldn’t get on board 😅

Ivan

I think there is also a simple educational factor here.

People come from very different educational backgrounds, even in technically developed countries. Not everyone has a strong foundation in mathematics, statistics or scientific reasoning.

And that makes it surprisingly easy to “sell” people something with a beautiful control panel.

Give them MANY, MANY numbers, colorful charts, arrows, percentages and blinking indicators — and for some people that alone becomes proof that THIS MUST BE SOMETHING SERIOUS ))

The more complicated it looks, the smarter it feels.

But complexity of presentation is not complexity of evidence ))

Bob

Ivan

👏👏👏

Bob

Let’s keep an eye on him and see how long he lasts ))

Simply astonishing people you come across these days.

Empowered by the possibilities of AI, but without any actual trading skills, they take whatever AI produces and, as one experienced trader put it, fill the entire trading community with “crap” ))

How many people will now LOSE MONEY, one way or another, trying these things SUDDENLY CREATED BY AI IN A MINUTE, without even performing the most basic checks of whether they actually work...

Bob

A new comment in that strange forum thread where SUDDENLY someone is giving away something made by AI for free.

A great comment.

This is exactly what I’m probably talking about ALL THE TIME.

And it’s not even about someone twisting and polishing a beautiful, meaningless box over and over, and then suddenly saying (suddenly realizing that something is wrong) — yes, the box is empty, this bright box is EMPTY inside, and you can make an infinite number of these empty, colorful boxes.

But the main thing is profit, right?

No. Even that is not the point.

IT’S NOT JUST THAT PROFIT IS THE MAIN THING — PROFIT IS THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS HERE.

Nothing except profit.

For a day, a week, a month, a year — either you are NET POSITIVE, or you go back and review what is failing, and stop spinning beautiful boxes around in your hands if you came here FOR PROFIT! ))

God — it really should be THIS SIMPLE.

If there is ONE BUTTON and it ALREADY MAKES MONEY — ugly, crude, inconvenient, just a text link — BUT IT MAKES PROFIT, then it is infinitely more valuable than beautiful boxes.

That is exactly how we should look at literally everything that comes our way in the market.

Nothing except profit?

You recommend something and it’s IN PROFIT?

NO?

Goodbye )))

You think you’re going to lose your FORUM FRIENDS?

Oh, oh, what about the “IMPORTANT COMMUNICATION”? ))

If you want communication, go somewhere else.

Here, what matters is PROFIT.

And that’s why “GOODBYE” means: CLEAR OUT THE BALANCE OF EMPTY OPINIONS AND EMPTY BOXES ))

That’s it )))

Crano

Bob Bravo!!! 👏

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