GBPAUD — Forecast 📈🔥

Marik888

Our guys are clearly gaining strength!

I mean the bulls 😀

Ivan

AUD is getting a strong impulse today, as I think many of you already know. Markets are pricing in the possibility of a rate hike.

What I like is that GBP is not seriously collapsing against AUD despite that )

That supports the expectations - and I'm trading the longs as well.

Bob

Ivan

Of course, I read the news.

It’s always interesting to understand whether there could have been something clearly out of context.

However, in my view, there is some speculative play here — an attempt to fuel panic )

The bullish candles are long, as if one team (those on the bulls’ side) understands that what’s happening is speculative in nature, and therefore acts with more confidence. Of course, they don’t know for sure, but it’s as if they suspect it, assuming the others are speculating.

So we wait and see, and I think the recovery will be fast )

Bob

For now, GBP still can’t reach the height we have set for it )

We hold, wait, and test the hypothesis behind our strategy:

"If there is a real advantage toward a particular target level — in this case, the level defined by the bulls — the price will repeatedly tend to move toward that target."

Up to this day, no matter what situations have occurred — this has always worked.

And this is exactly what has provided, and continues to provide, stable growth through all kinds of market conditions we've encountered so far.

Ivan

I probably started later, and everything looks great on my side )))

Bob

And so — some level of stabilization seems to have appeared )

We are adding new lots )

Now we wait for two scenarios:

Fast recovery — hours or a day at most, maybe a little more
Slow recovery — days, but no more than 4–5

That’s how it worked before. I’m confident we’ll see the same story this time.

Someone might say — but there are events, news, central bank decisions, interest rates, and so on and so on — anything can happen!

That’s true, BUT everything mentioned above, and actually MUCH more, has already been reflected in the price — and that is the price our AI works with as well.

Everything is already in the price.

So we wait for the scenarios above.

Crano

What I find interesting here is the distinction between what happens and what is already priced in.

News, rates, central banks, unexpected events — all of these can move the market. But the market we actually trade is the resulting price, after all participants have already reacted to whatever they know.

So the real question is not whether something unexpected can happen.

It obviously can.

The interesting question is whether, after all of that, the statistical tendency toward a particular level is still there.

The outcome will be much more interesting than any argument about the news )

Bob

Crano Beautiful thought!

How “far” does this statistical and probabilistic advantage actually “work”?

So to speak, how strong is it after some time?

I mean, clearly — after a year, it has a different strength than after hours, days, or even weeks.

And here we can see it, quite beautifully actually — even the most extreme deviations cannot stay outside that statistically defined level for more than a few days.

Bob

And so — here we are.

The lower boundary (the bad boundary) was extended even further overnight and was once again fixed around the 1.89145 level.

We have launched continuous AI monitoring for this pair, as this situation requires increased attention and is especially interesting while the lots are still open (and they are open, and we are not planning to close anything) 🙂

The AI continues to indicate that growth is expected, and with fairly high probabilities.

We trust it. Something that has not been wrong hundreds and thousands of times is unlikely to suddenly “go crazy” 🙂

Yesterday and today, we had successful lots on EURUSD and GBPJPY, so everything remains stable. Only GBPAUD, since yesterday, has produced a somewhat unusual result — but is it really that unusual?

And that is the most interesting question! )

Personally, I am confident that this will end as it has before — in profit )

Interestingly, over the last day, the correlation between GBPAUD and GBPJPY has dropped sharply. This clearly suggests that it is AUD that is setting the tone at the moment, which is, of course, also visible in the news and in renewed expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Recent Australian inflation data came in stronger than expected, prompting markets to reprice the probability of another rate hike and supporting the AUD. (reuters.com)

So we keep watching )

Ivan

I’m holding too! )

At least for now, I’m going to try this kind of strategy as well.

Bob

Ivan

My strategy is extremely simple.

I mean, we could have closed at the theoretical SL (see above), but as I said, we are testing the hypothesis “live” )

Purely out of respect for others.

With real risks (!), which, of course, everyone has to define for themselves.

But one thing I know for sure — in front of me, I have history, statistics, calculations, and even now, intermediate signals from the AI that confidently indicate, based on the intermediate states, that a shift toward a bullish trend is expected.

So for us personally — there are no alternatives.

And now I’m even making another bet: yes, the recovery may not happen immediately, but when it does begin, the dynamics of that recovery will probably be rapid.

Too many things are pointing in that direction.

Bob

A little about the monkeys and other clueless people.

What’s especially interesting.

For months, the system generates profits consistently — silence.
Nobody writes anything. Nobody says a word.

And then suddenly, for one day, two days, there is some drawdown.

Why the drawdown? Of course, we explain it. We don’t rush to close everything at a loss with a trembling hand, giving back what we have earned for no obvious reason.

That is OUR CHOICE, made for a very specific purpose.

And it is exactly at these moments that certain degenerates and idiots suddenly appear.

Why now? Where have you been during all the other weeks and months? )))

We have had only 3–4 situations like this during the entire year, and yes, we hold. We know what we are doing and we expect what we expect.

BUT THEY ARE ALWAYS RIGHT THERE.

And what do they write... 🤦

It’s complete nonsense )

Do they even read us? Do they study what we do? Do they follow our work?

Maybe they are EXPERTS? Maybe they understand trading really well? I mean, beyond the short TikTok clips they watched — assuming they even managed to watch those to the end?

It really is amazing who you can encounter in trading )))

So let me tell them once again what I have already told similar people before — just keep watching.

Just like last time, you will eventually have to choke on your own... well, let’s leave out the rude words.

And why?

No offense — but you are simply stupid. Really.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Taking something out of context, reacting to a temporary situation driven by your own envy and endless blown accounts — that is not US.

That is YOU.

And us?

Well, I’m simply documenting this. And I will definitely remember this exact moment when this particular story is over )

Everything has its time )))

Crano

Bob

Yeah, these people really are something else )

Do they actually trade real money? Or trade anything at all?

Maybe they read on some random wall — somewhere between the words “fuck” and “penis” — that “trading is easy” )))

Bob, don’t pay attention to them.

And honestly, just to avoid offending anyone — where are their accounts?

They’re all GURUS, yet somehow none of them has a public track record.

Imagine if this guy’s trading account were actually public. What would we find there?

-1,000%? 😂

Maybe even more ))

They’re beginners who somehow convinced themselves that once you learn to click BUY and SELL, you’re a trader.

And if you add an indicator with a few colorful lines?

Well, congratulations — you’re a GURU ))))

Bob

Crano
You are absolutely right about the importance of making achievements public )

In fact, just as an example, there have been HUNDREDS of posts on FF today alone — about this, about that, hundreds and thousands of posts just today.

BUT - formally, if there are no publicly verifiable accounts, then all of this is basically just market chatter. It doesn't matter what medal someone has drawn on their own chest, or what badge Forex Factory has given them for the NUMBER OF POSTS.

Because FF rewards the number of posts — not necessarily the quality of those posts.

And this creates a very interesting picture.

Right now, over there on FF, there’s a lot of loud discussion going on — about this, about that, and all sorts of other things.

BUT BETWEEN WHOM?

Who are these people who produce hundreds of posts every day on every possible topic, yet never seem to be in any hurry to actually prove anything they say?

Imagine a clinic where every office is occupied by self-proclaimed healers and miracle doctors, treating people with things like, “Drink your urine,” or “Treat your hemorrhoids with a cucumber” )))

Would they themselves be willing to end up in such a clinic?

I think they already are )))

And no offense — this is such a profound disrespect for science, facts, and verifiable evidence that they don't even notice when someone is already treating them with a cucumber...

And at the exit?

A blown trading account )))

Crano

Bob That’s actually a VERY accurate observation )

Suddenly they saw a losing trade… and, as expected, they started losing their minds )

But what’s really interesting is that with everyone else — practically the entire FF forum — they see nothing at all.

People simply hide their losses, but the idiot doesn’t understand that )))

He sees a photo of someone sitting at a desk with a pencil in their hand and thinks: GURU.

Meanwhile, someone with one of the very few genuinely public accounts, dozens of accounts tracked openly, and an honest demonstration of even difficult situations — for this guy, that is somehow evidence that you don’t know how to trade.

Some people are just clinically stupid )))

Bob

Something VERY interesting is happening with this pair )

We launched a dedicated monitoring system — a separate AI bot — just for this pair.

And all day long, it has been producing this kind of data )

Every checkmark you see on the screen represents a separate matrix — a separate, let’s call it, mini AI researcher, each with its own independent analysis methodology.

And as you can see, almost all of the checkmarks are green (they’re simply a convenient way for us to monitor the system’s status).

And they are almost all pointing toward a BULLISH TREND.

Interestingly, the system has already successfully traded some bullish moves today.

So yes — OF COURSE WE ARE WAITING for the bullish reversal )

And yes, there have been plenty of other lots today, all successful so far (GBPJPY, for example, is publicly available), but right now this particular case is what makes things interesting.

So… what’s going on? What’s wrong?

Nothing is wrong. Everything is working exactly as expected.

We’re simply waiting ))

Honestly, speaking as someone who not only builds AI but also watches and “reads” its decisions — especially after some time has passed — this is a VERY interesting case today.

And I’m deliberately putting this on record: my bet is that, given these inputs, we’re going to see a pretty strong bullish pump.

Either the AI has completely “lost the plot” (which is statistically extremely unlikely, but of course possible), or we should see a very sharp recovery phase )))

I’m incredibly curious to see which one it will be )

Bob

For now, we are still expecting a reversal — and yes, we definitely expect one. The system has also successfully traded GBPAUD on the bullish side today.

From the perspective of the news-driven reaction overnight and yesterday, everything currently looks quite classical and clean: we can see a descending channel, with almost perfectly parallel boundaries.

However, one thing is worth noting: the bears may already be exhausting themselves, while the bulls have not yet shown any obvious strength.

We knew exactly what we were getting into.

Testing this in a live situation is far more useful and valuable than simply closing at the theoretical stop yesterday and potentially missing something extremely important )

So we wait.

We wait for the reversal.
We wait for the price to break through the level mentioned above.

The horizon is hours to several days.

Only if this situation goes beyond that timeframe will it become clear that we are dealing with a COMPLETELY NEW CASE )

Ivan

We’re getting close ))) I can feel it )))

Bob

Here, it is especially noticeable that this is probably getting closer to the end — I mean the bearish panic. A beautiful one, almost literally an organized queue, following all the classic laws of market behavior.

In any case, the real question now is something else.

Do we tolerate it and hold, or do we close at the stops and reopen around the boundaries where the market begins to stabilize?

But then there is a second question: how do you know that what you are seeing is actually a reversal?

And questions like that immediately push us into the territory of everything I personally dislike about much of the trading community — empty, or half-empty, guesses.

One thing is clear, however.

One thing is clear — the AI itself, with its current ONE difficult lot (there was only one such lot in each mode), against the background of its own many, many successful trades, is not damaging its OWN statistics.

The overall statistics of the AI trades only have maintained a Profit Factor of around 3–4 consistently for almost a year now.

Everything happening now is really about our desire to extract profits faster and extract more, with certain costs and risks attached.

And those are exactly the costs and risks we are testing )

I am almost 100% confident that we simply wait for the reversal — one way or another.

And after that, we will think about what to do with situations and lots like these in the future )))

Crano

Bob
Of course, it is very commendable — and genuinely interesting — to try to find a different solution from the classical, one-dimensional use of stop losses.

But it may also turn out that, in principle, there is simply no real alternative to them.

Trades like these, if they are not cut, can require a significant amount of capital to hold, even if they eventually recover.

And that creates a practical dilemma.

Either we trade very small volumes from the beginning, with a deposit ten times larger — or even more — so that we can survive moves of 2,000, 3,000 points and beyond without stops...

Or, one way or another, we may have to temporarily increase the capital allocated to the account.

And most importantly, just a couple of difficult trades can require far more attention — including additional financial backing — than simply cutting them at a 250 or 300-point SL, or even 400.

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